Has credit truly become tight even for well qualified buyers? Nationwide we are seeing borrowers with marginal credit finding it harder to find attractive lending rates.  It is also getting slightly more difficult for borrowers with good credit who are interested in Jumbo mortgages, or a loan larger than $417K.  We are now seeing rates in some markets as high as 8% on these Jumbo’s up from 6.9% in early July 2007. 

Why is that you ask?  Quite simply investors, who generally buy mortgages from lenders, are a bit skittish about buying these loans. They worry about the increased risk that they might not pay off.

What does this mean for the Austin Real Estate Market?  We are fortunate in Austin to still have strong and active lender contacts who are getting it done daily for our buyers at great rates, however nationwide we expect the slump to continue to last a little longer and could began to have an impact on the most expensive high end sector of the market that has been fairly immune to the slow down thus far.

There was an article in the Austin American Statesman a few days ago that confirms what we are seeing in the Austin real estate market over the past year. The bottom line here is with the very healthy job growth, Austin's real estate market is expected to remain strong in 2008, predicts Mark Dotzour, chief economist and director of research at the Texas A&M Real Estate Center. The full article and link is below.

http://www.statesman.com/business/content/business/stories/realestate/08/08/0808forecast.html

Job growth keeps area real estate healthy, economists say
Strong performances expected in housing, retail and apartment sectors

By Shonda Novak
AMERICAN-STATESMAN STAFF
Wednesday, August 08, 2007

Backed by healthy job growth, Central Texas' real estate market is expected to remain strong in 2008, a Texas economist predicts.

The strength should span the region's housing, retail and apartment sectors, though the office market might lose some steam, said Mark Dotzour, chief economist and director of research at the Texas A&M Real Estate Center. Dotzour made his comments Tuesday at the Real Estate Council of Austin's annual forecast event.

Dotzour said national job growth will be only about 1 percent but that Texas' rate probably will be double that. And he predicted that Central Texas will outperform both the nation and the state with 3.5 percent job growth.

"Austin is blowing the doors off the state of Texas," Dotzour told a crowd of more than 1,000 people.

On the housing front, Dotzour said, the Austin metro area should see healthy sales and price appreciation. He also forecast rising retail, apartment and office rents but said he expects the office occupancy rates to dip 3 percent.

Dotzour's forecast draws from a range of local real estate professionals, including Charles Heimsath, president of Austin-based Capitol Market Research.

Home sales were at near-record levels at mid-2007 with a low, four-month supply, Dotzour said, not far below the two-month inventory level seen in booming 1999. It's no surprise, he said, that Central Texas home prices appreciated 11 percent in early 2007 compared with a year earlier, according to federal housing data. That outpaced rates of 6.87 percent in Texas, 4.34 percent in Florida and 1.19 percent in California.

"I would expect at the current low levels of inventory, home prices are likely to continue to appreciate substantially in the next 12 months, possibly rising in the 8 to 10 percent range," Dotzour said in an interview.

However, Dotzour said rising interest rates have had a "dramatic impact" on the ability of entry-level buyers to get mortgages across the country, including Austin.

And he warned that if uncertainties in the mortgage market continue for a prolonged period, homes sales could suffer in every U.S. market, including Austin.

Other highlights from two real estate forecasts released Tuesday.

Retail: Market was robust in first half of 2007, with 1.7 million square feet of space absorbed and rents up 5.8 percent since December. In the next 12 months, demand for 2.5 million square feet of new retail space is expected, with 3 million square feet becoming available. The occupancy rate will likely drop slightly, to 91.4 percent from about 92 percent, but rents are expected to rise $2 a square foot.

Apartments: Rents and occupancies increased through the first half of the year. Citywide, the June 2007 occupancy rate was 96.8 percent, up 2 percentage points from December. Rents averaged 94 cents per square foot in June, up 3 cents since December.

Offices: Results were disappointing in the first half of 2007. Though rents increased, occupancy dipped.

Looking ahead

Highlights from two real estate reports released Tuesday.

Retail: 1.7 million square feet of space absorbed in first half of 2007. Rents up 5.8 percent since December.

Homes: Prices appreciated 11 percent in early 2007 compared with a year earlier.

Apartments: Occupancy rate rose to 96.8 percent, up 2 percentage points from December. Rents averaged 94 cents per square foot, up 3 cents since December.

Offices: Rents have risen; occupancy has slipped.

Our seller clients often consider PODS (portable moving containers) as an alternative to full service moving providers.

Usually a container is dropped off in your driveway and you have a period of time to pack and load your own belongings. When the items are loaded, drivers pick up the container and transport it to your new home, where you unload and unpack.

This might be a good option for you if: 

  

• You would like to pack and load some of your household goods into storage while your house is on the market or if you cannot move immediately into your new home. Remember that you will be charged for the unit for the time that you are using it for storage. Compare those costs with full-service van line storage options.
• You have a very small shipment. Most full service movers have a minimum weight requirement. If the weight of your shipment is significantly lower than that minimum weight it may be more cost effective for you to use a portable moving container.

Although portable moving containers provide solutions for the above situations there are some things you should take into consideration:

• Consumer Reports Money Advisor, January 2007, published a study of pricing for moving services. Portable containers turned out to be significantly more costly than other self pack options.
• Don’t forget to add the cost of packing materials to the base price of your portable container estimate. Packing materials are included in a full pack quote from full service van line providers.  
• You forfeit the benefits of having professional movers pack your items for transport. These benefits include professional packing techniques and protection coverage. Don’t forget the added benefit of having someone else do all that physical labor!

We know...this is thrilling stuff.  But part of our job is to keep you inforrmed so make sure that you are comparing apples to apples when you are reviewing pricing and various options for your move.

I recently shopped Lowe's and Home Depot on the same day for the exact same item.  A tankless hot water heater. 

My first stop was at Lowe's.  I was impressed by the cleanliness of the store and the relative ease of parking. The aisles were clear and organized, more like Whole Foods than a hardware store.  I also saw a lot of bbq grills, garden furniture and appliances. I went to the plumbing department to look for tankless water heaters. I could not locate them on my own, so I asked a store associate for assistance. That initial associate did not seem to know much and forwarded me on to someone else who told me that tankless water heaters were not stocked in the store and had to be special ordered.  Glancing around the parking lot as I left I notice a lack of contractor type vehicles. Lowe's strikes me as more of a Sear's store.    
 
Next was Home Depot. The store was more crowed and appeared less organized. I headed to the plumbing department and straight to a gas tankless water heater. I questioned a knowledgeable associate and they indicated the gas one was in stock, but an electric one would need to be ordered ($999).

I needed an installer and was directed to the service desk where a long line of shoppers stood with only one associate working the desk.  Very disappointed here.  After 20 minutes I was directed to a special contractor "Hotline" phone where I was able to provide information to an operator that would then forward it to several contractors that would contact me directly for installation options.  Seems like a plan, but no calls yet.  

My thoughts are Lowe's was great for cleanliness and lawn furniture.  Home Depot is better for true hardward issues, but travel with patience.

In the latest edition of (AARP The Magazine) Texas' capital city has landed on the list of the top four "retirement-friendly" cities to watch.

Features that make a community livable, such as mass-transit systems, expanded sidewalks, better healthcare and a wide range of mixed-use housing, were among the criteria for determing the magazine's list of five great places to live and the four cities worth watching. These features tend to attract residents over age 50. According to the magazine, that age group is estimated to grow by 32 percent in the next 15 years.

The three other places to watch were Burlington, Vt.; Mankato, Minn.; and Traverse City, Mich. The top five places in the nation for retirees were Atlanta, Ga; Boston, Mass.; Chandler, Ariz.; Milwaukee, Wis.; and Portland, Ore.

We are all the time getting quizzed about why so many folks love Austin and want to move here.  What's the Big Deal?  Here is some insight...

CNN recently ran a story about how Austin is "Haven for the healthy, paradise for the party crowd". I always thought of it as a fun party town and a good place to exercise. There are lots of running trails, especially around Town Lake and there are tons for people who love to bike around the city. Mostly due to Lance Armstong who lives in a dream home in central Austin.

There also always a good looking party crowd downtown every night.

Also, Austin has one of the most vibrant and exciting LIVE MUSIC scenes anywhere. Every night there is always some great music playing at some fun club.

So if you want to party and meet lots of pretty people or just want to work out in a great envortarment, then check out Austin, Texas scene. If you need some ideas on places you'd like to go contact us and we'll steer in the direction of what you are looking to do.

Here's a link to the CNN Story:  "Haven for the healthy, paradise for the party crowd"

Dear Kent – Home prices in Austin feel like they are continuing to rise, but so do mortgages. Are we building equity or eating equity? - Trevor

Slipping.

I’m no economic rocket scientist, but according to the Federal Reserve at the end of the year 2000, home mortgages totaled $4.81 trillion, and our homes were collectively worth $11.42 trillion — which meant that we had a collective 58% equity, 42% debt. (From the Federal Reserve Flow of Funds report, table B.100 which shows balance sheets of households including home equity lines of credit)

At the end of the first quarter of this year 2007, the home mortgage totals were $9.8 trillion, and our homes collective net worth was $20.8 trillion — that equates to a collective 53% equity, 47% debt.

So Americans are cannibalizing their homes by slowly siphoning their equity. If the trend continues on its current path, in another 7.5 years, the glass (house) will be more than half-empty. In other words, the percentage of debt on our homes will be more than 50%.

If a buyer just bought a house and put down 10%, 15% or 20%, they may think “so what, 50% equity looks pretty good to me!” but it’s a disheartening American trend. The payments we make on those mortgages include interest costs, money that we could be better used in other areas like educating our children, starting a new business, assisting those less fortunate, preparing for retirement and so on.

Thanks, Trevor, for the question!